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Bearish patterns

Bearish patternsEconomy and financial market are closely related. In fact the economic conditions of the nation are better expressed in connection with the financial market status. A rise or fall in the financial market will affect the economy of the state. You might have come across the term bear market and bull market in the financial sectors. These terms are often used to describe the economic conditions as in connection with financial market.

Over the years, you start to see patterns everywhere. And some of the most recognizable ones are the best-performing formations, making simple stock market charting techniques easy to add to your analysis of any stock or investment vehicle. With the market struggling for direction, it's important to recognize these patterns when they pop up. When bear market continues in the economy, there is a high chance of economic depression. The bearish market alarms a danger signal for the investors as well as the public. This causes a pessimistic attitude in the investors. In fact this pessimistic attitude is the best indicator of a bear market. The investors start exhibiting a conservative nature.



Bear market - A fall in economy

Fundamental conditions still apply once a formation has run its course, which I'll illustrate for you on Friday with some bullish chart patterns. In the meantime, keep an eye out for these bearish patterns in your investment portfolio assets. Knowing when to get out can be a powerful tool in preserving your wealth.

Warning

: Stop reading now. You're going to hate what we say today. You'll hear the word "sell" a lot. Why? Because if you don't sell, a lot of you smarties will lose big bucks. Remember: In spite of all the optimistic cheering during the 30-month long 2000-2002 recession, the S&P 500 dropped 43% and investors lost $8 trillion in market cap.

But I know how much optimists hate talk of recessions and bears. That's for losers, right? Even when there's a vast consensus forming among economists, Fed watchers and Wall Street insiders. So why the denial? Because you've got a big secret: As Jack Nicholson said in "A Few Good Men," "you can't handle the truth." Behavioral finance experts have a fancy term to describe what happens: Cognitive dissonance. "The avoidance of cognitive dissonance can affect the decision-making processes in two ways. First, you can fail to make important decisions because it's too uncomfortable to contemplate the situation," Nofsinger says.

Commentary

: Sell stocks, realty, commodities, and buy bonds, dollar

When a bear market is suspected, people start selling their stocks. They aim at making a profit when conditions favor. There are people who are ready to take risks. They try to sell borrowed stocks. Here what they target is buying back the stocks when the price is low. This is made on an assumption. But this is a dangerous decision as it can put them in trouble if the market is not working as per their pre assumptions. Bear market can alarm the beginning of a recession. There can be severe unemployment prevailing in the state when a recession starts. A rising inflation follows. The value of housing falls below average. Stagflation economy can trigger a bear market.


Your brain is an unreliable computer

The investors start making investments with ultimate care. Bear market has impacts and reflections on more than one market. When the declination is felt in a single market, it cannot be referred to as a bear market. But it can be considered as the initial stages of a bear market.

People hate conflicting data so much they get nervous when their preconceptions are threatened. Their brain freezes, they self-sabotage and do nothing--and their worst fears become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The second way we handle conflicting information: "Your brain will filter out or reduce negative information and fixate on positive information," Nofsinger says. Unfortunately, "if you ignore negative information, how are you going to realize that an adjustment in your portfolio is necessary?" Plus, you miss lots of opportunities.

The problem is your brain. It insists you're acting rational, even when you're making decisions based on totally irrational beliefs about money, budgeting, savings and investing. No wonder Nofsinger titled his book "Investment Madness." Even with all our hi-tech online tools, data and programs, the optimist's brain still screws it up.

"Think of the human brain as a personal computer with a very slow processor and a memory system that is small and unreliable," says another behavioral finance guru, University of Chicago Professor Richard Thaler, in "The Winner's Curse." "I don't know about you, but the PC I carry between my ears has more disk failures than I care to think about," he says. Thaler warns that the "rational investor" theory is an outdated fantasy. Quoting Nobel Economist Milton Friedman: "Even though people can't make the calculations in the economic model, they act as if they could make the calculations."


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