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Trading setup

Trading setupFor trading setup, one cannot predict the initial impulse - "flag pole" - that creates the pattern, nor can one accurately predict the retracement that constitutes "Flag" portion. The pattern derives its edge and opportunity from price break-out above the upper trendline that forms the "Flag" portion. We expect a "Measured Move" to occur giving us a potential price projection and location to place our stop (beneath the lower trendline of flag) if we are incorrect.

Graphically, the pattern is comprised of a large volatility upward impulse move ('flag pole') which is then followed by a retracement that occurs downward in a near 45 degree angle. After this retracement is complete, a 'measured move' component breaks back to the upside - roughly equal to the original flag pole.

Trading setup
  1. It is key to spot the bull flag pattern to trade it accordingly. A bull flag is a continuation pattern within an uptrend. It can be spotted by parallel downward sloping after a sharp increase in price. A bull flag, not surprisingly, resembles a flag on a candlestick chart. Notice the long candlestick that creates the flagpole which is followed by candlesticks that consolidate downward to form the flag.
  2. Once you have spotted the bull flag pattern, you will be looking to enter a long position as you expect the upside price action to continue. Wait until a candlestick closes above the flag pattern before entering your trade.
  3. No trade is 100% guaranteed to play out in your favor, so it is important to place a stop loss in order to avoid a big loss if the trade goes against you. It is recommended that you place a stop loss just below the upper declining trendline of the bull flag pattern in case price breaks back into the flag and continues lower.
  4. Once your trade is entered after trading setup, and your stop loss is set, it's time to decide when and how much profit to take. Technical analysis makes this easy and actually eliminates any guesswork. Calculate the length of the flagpole on the bull flag pattern and apply this to the point in which price broke out of the bull flag.

    So as a basic example, lets say that in the chart above that the price has run up 2 points from the bottom of the flag pole to the top(distance marked "A"). So, you know that you can expect a 2 point run-up in price after the break in the flag. This distance is market as "B". Now, the way you would handle this situation, is you would enter on a break of the flag and place your stop under the low of the flag. Lets say that the breakout occurs at $50, and the low of the flag is $49.55. So you are therefore risking 45 cents to make $2 giving you a risk/reward ratio .225, which is pretty darn good, I guess.
The first component is the 'pole,' which you often can't detect as it forms. It is the second component that creates the 'trade.' Once you see a clean retracement against a large, near vertical price move, this is your clue to begin looking for this trade. If the retracement is bound by near parallel channels which form a 45 degree angle, then this increases your confidence that a flag pattern is occurring. If the retracement pulls back to the 20 period (or some other) moving average, or some other area of perceived support, this adds confidence to this pattern.
  1. Entry

    : Generally, once you see price retrace about 50% of the initial 'pole' or price comes into a support zone, this would be your entry. If you are an aggressive trader, you can enter as price continues downward in the retracement in anticipation of a reversal. Generally, you'll fall victim to less slippage and will get a better position if the measured move occurs.

    If you are more conservative, you can actually wait for the price to break out of the upper channel and enter at that point. You'll sacrifice initial trading setup, but will put the odds a little more in your favor.

  2. Stop and target

    : Where do you place your stop and where do I play for a target? It depends on your style of trading. The stop should go a 'comfortable' distance beneath the lower trend channel of the flag portion. Again, if you are conservative, you can place it just beneath the support zone or bottom trend channel. If you're more aggressive, you can place the stop lower than this zone, or even beneath the initial pole (of the impulse).

    Keep in mind that you have a clear target once you establish your trading setup, and so you can easily cut that target in half to establish a clean 2 to 1 reward to risk ratio. The target is an equal distance of the pole which is added to the bottom of the lower trend channel in the flag.

    Example: If the 'pole' impulse is $5.00 (taking price from $40 to $45), and the retracement takes price down $2.50 to $42.50, then the 'measured move' target would be $42.50 + $5.00 or $47.50. Your stop could be placed where you are comfortable beneath $42.00.

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