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Triple top

Triple top Triple top is a reversal chart pattern, where a stock is in an up trend. This pattern is identified when price of an asset creates 3 peaks at nearly same price level. The bounce off the resistance near the third peak is a clear indication that buying interest is becoming exhausted. It's used by traders to predict reversal of the uptrend. This is similar to double top. In a clear up trend, the prices hits a resistance and a correction sets in, creating a reaction and a swing top. When the momentum of this down swing exhausts, the prices starts to rise as a continuation of the trend and forms a swing bottom. Up till now every thing is as usual.

Now at the level of previous resistance, if the prices halts, it should alert the formation of a probable second top. If the resistance is strong enough to stop further rise of the prices, the prices drop again, forming a second swing top at the same resistance level. It's repeated again to form a third swing top at the same resistance level. Then the prices drop and break below the swing bottom created between the 3 swing tops. This confirms the formation of a triple top. Volume invariably rises as the prices fall after the third swing top. It increases further after the break out of swing bottom.



The three consecutive tops make this pattern visually similar to the head and shoulders pattern but, in this case, the middle peak is nearly equal to the other peaks rather than being higher. Many traders will enter into a short position once the price of the asset falls below the identified support level.

How to trade?

Most of the time the prices after breaking below the swing bottom, retraces back to test the support turned resistance. When this new resistance holds the prices, at the trend line drawn at the swing bottom, the prices continues to drop in a down trend, making lower lows and lower highs. A short trade can be entered by selling at the first break out of the trend line, drawn at the swing bottom or when the prices tests the trend line and turns down.

The height between the three triple tops and the lowest swing bottom, when subtracted from the swing bottom gives us the target for this trade.

The three swing tops need not be exactly at the same level. A difference of up to three percent, is considered as acceptable. If the prices breaks above the three swing tops, we get a resistance break out trade.

Triple top technical analysis

Existing trend

There should be an established existing UPWARD trend prior to the triple top pattern.

Shape of triple top pattern

  1. The 3 peaks

    : The peaks / tops should be sharp and distinct / well separated. The price peaks do not have to be exactly the same, but it should appear reasonably equivalent to each other. If the last top (3rd peak) is lower than the middle top (2nd peak), there is a relatively higher chance of stronger decline. A lower top in the last peak might indicate weaker buying sentiments, as the buyers attempt to reach the previous high or make a new high but fail, suggesting that the buyers might have been drying up & exhausted.
  2. The 2 troughs

    : The lows of the troughs can appear more rounded.

Duration

Triple top pattern can be considered a long term pattern. The duration of the formation of the pattern can take several months, normally range from 3 to 6 months, with an average of about 4 months. Basically, according to triple top technical analysis, the longer the time duration the pattern takes to develop, the more likely the pattern could work out as a reversal pattern or the stronger the price might move once the breakout occurs.

Breakout

Even when the price has declined from the 3rd peak, the pattern is not completed yet. The chances that the existing uptrend will continue are still higher than the chances of reversal to take place, as it is normal during an uptrend for the price to test a resistance level a few times, then retreat, and then resume the uptrend again.

Triple top pattern is only completed and confirmed when the price declines and closes below the lowest lows of the troughs in between the 3 peaks, which serves as the key support level in this pattern. This lowest low is called the "Confirmation Point".

Remember that we should always assume the existing trend (i.e. in this case is uptrend) is in force unless proven otherwise. Therefore, it is important to wait for the price to make a decisive breakout by breaking through and closing below the Confirmation Point, accompanied with an increase in volume, in order to avoid jumping the gun and/or prevent deceptive Triple top pattern.


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