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Follow the trend

There are times when the market tends to move towards a certain direction for a long period of time. It can be upward or downward. From an investors' point of view you may think that down-times have nothing to do with making profits. They are only the times to accumulate good stocks, and then wait for the market to rise back.

Do you think that everyone lose at bad times? No. There are winners. They are the trend followers. There are four cardinal principles which should be part of every trading strategy. They are:
  1. Trade with the trend,
  2. Cut losses short,
  3. Let profits run, and
  4. Manage risk.

You should make sure your strategy includes each of these requirements for success. Trade with the trend relates to the decision of how to initiate trades. It means you should always trade in the direction of recent price movement. Mathematical analysis of stock price data has shown that these price changes are primarily random with a small trend component. This scientific fact is extremely important to those desiring to pursue commodity trading in a rational, scientific manner. It means that any attempt to trade short-term patterns and methods not based on trend are doomed to failure.



Follow the trend. Trend trading is reactive and systematic by nature. It does not forecast or predict markets or price levels. Prediction is impossible! Trend trading demands that you have strong self-discipline to follow precise rules (no guessing or wild emotions). It involves a risk management system that uses current market price, the equity level in your account and current market volatility. Trend traders use an initial risk rule that determines your position size at the time of entry. This means you know exactly how much to buy or sell based on how much money you have. Changes in price may lead to a gradual reduction or increase of your initial trade. On the other hand, adverse price movements may lead to an exit for your entire trade. Historically, A trend trader's average profit per trade is significantly higher than the average loss per trade.

Beyond the mere rules, the human element is core to the strategy. It takes discipline and emotional control to stick with trend trading through the inevitable market ups and downs. Keep in mind though, Trend Followers expect ups and downs. They are planned for in advance.

This strategy assumes that the present direction of the stock will continue into the future. It can be used by short-, intermediate- or long-term traders. Regardless of their chosen time frame, traders will remain in their position until they believe the trend has reversed - but reversal may occur at different times for each time frame.

Trading with the trend is hard to do because a logical give-up exit point will be farther away, potentially causing a larger loss if you are wrong. This is a good example of why so few traders are successful. They can't bring themselves to trade in a psychologically difficult way. So it's always better for you to make your moves systematically. Let's take you through a few principles that can help you trade safely:

  1. Price

    : One of the first rules of trend following is that price is the main concern. Follow the trend. Traders may use other indicators showing where price may go next or what it should be but as a general rule these should be disregarded. A trader need only be worried about what the market is doing, not what the market might do. The current price and only the price tells you what the market is doing.
  2. Money management

    : Another decisive factor of trend following is not the timing of the trade or the indicator, but rather the decision of how much to trade over the course of the trend.
  3. Risk control

    : Cut losses is the rule. This means that during periods of higher market volatility, the trading size is reduced. During losing periods, positions are reduced and trade size is cut back. The main objective is to preserve capital until more positive price trends reappear.
  4. Rules

    : Trend following should be systematic. Price and time are pivotal at all times. This technique is not based on an analysis of fundamental supply and demand factors.

The daytrader

Share prices charts

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    Gaining knowledge is the first step to trading.
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      Traders violate it surprisingly often!
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    For those who do not know about day trading, ...
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