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Fourt Woodlock equation

Fourt Woodlock equation is the tool used in business analysis stage, where the primary focus is to determine whether the product idea will ultimately be profitable or not. The equation helps gather additional information on the innovations in order to decide whether significant costs that development will require are justified.

The Fourt Woodlock equation (sometimes misspelled Fort-Woodlock Equation) is a market research tool to describe the total volume of consumer product purchases per year based on households which initially make trial purchases of the product and those households which make a repeat purchase within the first year. Since it includes the effects of initial trial and repeat rates, the equation is useful in new product development.

The Fourt Woodlock equation itself is:

V = (HH.TR.TU) + (HH.TR.MR.RR.RU)

The equation was developed retrospectively after analyzing the market penetration curves of a number of new products. This equation assumes that cumulative sales exhibit an exponential curve shape and that adoptions are based on individuals' exposure to external information sources such as marketing expenditures in mass media, rather than on word-of-mouth or other imitative effects.


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The left-hand-side of the Fourt Woodlock equation is the volume of purchases per unit time (usually taken to be one year). On the right-hand-side, the first parentheses describes trial volume, and the second describes repeat volume.

HH is the total number of households in the geographic area of projection, and TR ("trial rate") is the percentage of those households which will purchase the product for the first time in a given time period. TU ("trial units") is the number of units purchased on this first purchase occasion. MR is "measured repeat," or the percentage of those who tried the product who will purchase it at least one more time within the first year of the product's launch. RR is the repeats per repeater: the number of repeat purchases within that same year. RU is the number of repeat units purchased on each repeat event.

The applied science of product forecasting is used to estimate each term on the right-hand-side of this equation. Estimating the trial rate is complex and typically requires sophisticated models to predict, while the number of households is usually well known (except in some unusually complicated markets such as China).

Fourt Woodlock equationYou can use the specialized version of the Fourt Woodlock equation to calculate annual sales. The 50% odds value is the median annual sales value. These values can be very close or very different depending on the variance in all of the inputs.

Notice in the first curve that the mean and median are the same. This is what you expect to happen, but due to the variance in all the inputs the actual distribution looks more like the second curve. The mean value is still the same, but the median (50% odds value) is lower. Reporting 80%, 50% and 20% odds of at least this value is our way of accurately describing the curve and providing the best information to help you make a more informed business decision.

Business strategies definition

 

Business strategy development

  1. Idea generation
    1. Opportunity analysis
      The strategy of assessing the potential for a change or enhancement to enhance the generation of revenue.
  2. Idea screening
  3. Business analysis
    1. Break even analysis
    2. Benefits of break even analysis
    3. Fourt Woodlock equation
      The tool used to determine whether the product idea will be profitable or not.
  4. Critical path analysis
  5. How to make critical path analysis?
  6. Critical path in business
  7. Logistics strategic plan
    Logistics is how to get raw materials, move them in the system, distribute and replace them.
 
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